Qhov kawg ntawm "Peb Loj" Era
Tau ntau xyoo lawm, lub ntiaj teb polyurethane (PU) kev ua lag luam tau anchored los ntawm "Peb Loj", Tebchaws Asmeskas, Tebchaws Europe, thiab Tuam Tshoj, ua haujlwm raws li ob qho tib si thawj cov neeg tsim khoom thiab cov neeg siv khoom kawg ntawm PU feedstock. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog raws li kev lag luam navigates 2026, lub cav loj hlob no ib txwm muaj kev cuam tshuam. Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab European kev lag luam tab tom tawm tsam macroeconomic headwinds, tsis tu ncua tepid downstream xav tau, thiab nce nqi ua haujlwm. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, Tuam Tshoj tab tom sib tw nrog loj heev upstream muaj peev xwm expansions uas tau sib tsoo nrog ib tug ntev lub sij hawm domestic vaj tse poob qis thiab sluggish domestic noj. Yog li ntawd, lub sijhawm ntawm Peb Qhov Loj Tshwj Xeeb tshwj xeeb rau kev txiav txim siab thoob ntiaj teb PU kev xav tau dhau los.
Hloov chaw, qhov chaw nruab nrab ntawm lub ntiajteb txawj nqus rau lub ntiaj teb ntim kev loj hlob tau txiav txim siab hloov mus rau Ntiaj Teb Sab Qab Teb. Tsav los ntawm kev nthuav dav pej xeem, kev loj hlob sai, kev nce qib hauv nruab nrab, thiab lub luag haujlwm cheb rau kev tsim khoom hauv zos, South Asia, Southeast Asia, thiab, nce ntxiv, Africa tau tshwm sim los ua cov ntsiab lus tshiab ntawm kev xav tau thoob ntiaj teb.
Qhov no noj supercycle nyob rau hauv lub ntiaj teb no sab qab teb coincides zoo kawg nkaus nrog Tuam Tshoj txoj kev xav tau ceev rau ib tug export tso valve. Txhawm rau txo qis kev nqus hauv tsev, Suav cov tshuaj lom neeg loj heev tau ua phem rau lawv cov peev txheej loj ntawm MDI, TDI, thiab polyols sab qab teb. Qhov tshwm sim export surge tsis yog ib ntus kev lag luam anomaly; Nws yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib npaug ntawm lub ntiaj teb PU tus nqi saw. Rau cov tub lag luam, cov neeg yuav khoom, thiab cov neeg tsim khoom tab tom nrhiav rau xyoo 2030, kev ua lag luam sib koom hauv cov chaw tawm tshiab no tsis yog ib qho kev nthuav dav ntxiv lawm, nws yog qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua kom ntev ntev - ciaj sia taus.
Overcapacity Raws Li Txoj Cai
Txhawm rau kom nkag siab qhov loj ntawm qhov pivot xa tawm tam sim no, ib qho yuav tsum tau saib ntawm qhov loj me ntawm Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm ntawm polyurethane. Thaum kawg ntawm 2025, Tuam Tshoj tsis tau tsuas yog cemented nws txoj hauj lwm raws li lub ntiaj teb no tus thawj chaw tsim khoom tab sis tau structurally outpaced nws tus kheej domestic xav tau kev pab.
Nyob rau hauv isocyanates sector, ntiaj teb no MDI muaj peev xwm mus txog 11,100 ktpa, nrog Tuam Tshoj ib leeg accounting rau 5,100 ktpa, ib tug staggering 46.3% ntawm lub ntiaj teb no tag nrho. Cov concentration hauv TDI yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj: ntawm 3,630 ktpa thoob ntiaj teb muaj peev xwm, Tuam Tshoj txhawb nqa 1,990 ktpa, sawv cev kwv yees li 54.7%. Lub caij no, Tuam Tshoj lub peev xwm polyol tau mus txog 10,600 ktpa tawm ntawm lub ntiaj teb 17,800 ktpa. Lub hauv paus tsim khoom loj no, tau tsim thaum lub sijhawm lub ncov ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam thiab vaj tsev boom, tam sim no structurally lengthening lub lag luam raws li domestic downstream noj slows.