Benzene Import Dependence vs. Domestic Toluene Surplus
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam benzene tseem vam khom ib feem ntawm kev xa khoom, nrog kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam hovering nyob ib ncig ntawm 15%. Txhua xyoo ntshuam ntshuam nyob rau xyoo 2024-2025 tau kwv yees kwv yees li ntawm 4.3-5.5 lab tons, feem ntau yog los ntawm cov neeg muag khoom Asian suav nrog South Kauslim thiab Brunei. Txawm hais tias Tuam Tshoj muaj lub peev xwm loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb benzene ntau lawm - kwv yees li ntawm 25-32 lab tons - nrawm nrawm nrawm nrawm hauv styrene thiab caprolactam tau khaws lub khw muag khoom nruj.
Yog li ntawd, thaum lub ntiaj teb no roj nqi nce thiab shipping cuam tshuam tshwm sim, import replenishment yuav nyuaj, amplifying nqi rhiab heev nyob rau hauv lub domestic benzene ua lag luam.
Nyob rau hauv sib piv, Tuam Tshoj lub lag luam toluene yog structurally oversupplied. Ntshuam dependence twb poob rau hauv qab 1%. Hauv 2024, kev xa tawm tag nrho kwv yees li 30,000 tons, thaum xa tawm ntau tshaj 550,000 tons, ua rau Tuam Tshoj ua tus xa tawm ntawm toluene. Cov khoom xa tawm tau nce ntxiv hauv 2025, nrog rau cov lag luam hauv cheeb tsam xws li Singapore, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, thiab Taiwan tau tawm los ua qhov chaw tseem ceeb.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev sib xyaw ua ke ua kom zoo dua qub, thee- txoj hauv kev tsim tshuaj lom neeg, thiab qhov muaj peev xwm hloov pauv hloov pauv tau muab cov khoom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo. Txawm li cas los xij, benzene thiab toluene tus nqi tseem tau nce mus rau hauv tandem, uas tau tsav los ntawm peb txoj kev sib txuas tseem ceeb.
Ua ntej, ob qho tib si cov khoom lag luam sib faib cov nqi sib piv tau los ntawm naphtha feedstocks, txhais tau tias cov nqi roj crude nce ncaj qha nce nqi ntau lawm. Thib ob, kev siv dav dav ntawm toluene disproportionation hauv Suav teb hloov cov toluene rau hauv benzene thiab sib xyaw xylenes. Thaum benzene hais kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, cov neeg ua haujlwm refiners nce kev ua haujlwm tsis sib xws, nruj toluene mov thiab thawb tus nqi siab dua. Thib peb, kev xav hauv kev lag luam ua lub luag haujlwm: cov tub lag luam feem ntau kho BTX aromatics raws li ib qho kev lag luam, thiab kev tsim kho thaj chaw zoo li ua rau synchronized speculative muas thoob plaws.
Tus nqi txav hauv lub Peb Hlis kom meej meej qhia txog qhov kev sib raug zoo no. Txawm hais tias benzene tau pom tias muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua rau kev cuam tshuam, toluene tseem ua raws li tus nqi dav dua - tsav tsheb nce siab. Qhov no piav qhia vim li cas tus nqi toluene tuaj yeem nce siab txawm tias muaj kev xa khoom hauv tsev.
Tus nqi siab ntawm MDI thiab TDI Value Chains
Tus nqi nce siab nyob rau hauv aromatics feedstocks tau txhais sai sai rau cov nqi ntau lawm rau kev lag luam polyurethane. TDI ntau lawm tso siab rau toluene ncaj qha los ntawm cov txheej txheem nitration-TDA-phosgenation, ua rau nws tshwj xeeb yog toluene nqi txav. MDI ntau lawm, ntawm qhov tod tes, yog raws li cov saw hlau benzene (benzene → nitrobenzene → aniline → MDI).
Tsis ntev los no qhov nce ntawm cov nqi khoom noj tau thawb TDI cov nqi tsim khoom nce siab dua, ua rau muaj kev nce sai hauv cov nqi hauv khw TDI. Thawj cov neeg tsim khoom xws liWanhua Chemicaltwb tau taw qhia tus nqi -tau hloov kho tus nqi.
Txawm hais tias MDI saw tseem ntsib cov nqi benzene ntau dua, kev tsim cov aniline hauv Suav teb muaj qee cov nqi buffering. Hauv kev sib piv, ntu TDI tab tom ntsib tus nqi ncaj qha ntau dua, vim tias cov nqi toluene nce ntxiv thiab cov khoom lag luam poob qis dua yog qhov hnyav ntawm kev khiav hauj lwm margins. Zuag qhia tag nrho, MDI thiab TDI margins tau kwv yees tias tau cog lus los ntawm kwv yees li 15-25% hauv lub Peb Hlis piv nrog rau lub Ob Hlis lig.
Downstream polyurethane sectors-xws li ua npuas ncauj hloov tau, txheej, thiab elastomers- tam sim no tab tom ntsib tus nqi nce ntxiv - los ntawm kev kub siab. Yog tias cov nqi khoom noj khoom haus tseem nce siab, kawg- siv cov kev lag luam xws li cov khoom siv hauv tsev, kev tsim tsheb, thiab lub tsev rwb thaiv tsev yuav ua rau qeeb kev yuav khoom ib ntus thaum tos tus nqi ruaj ntseg.
Luv luv-Lub Sij Hawm Outlook: Ua kom muaj kev kub ntxhov dhau ntawm lub quarter thib ob
Raws li lub Peb Hlis 16, 2026, tsis muaj cov cim qhia meej ntawm qhov ze - lub sijhawm tsis sib haum xeeb, lub ntsiab lus ntawm thaj chaw muaj kev pheej hmoo pheej hmoo hauv kev lag luam roj yuav muaj nyob mus ntxiv. Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv, benzene thiab toluene tus nqi yuav tsum nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv ntawm qib siab.
Yog tias lub tsheb thauj neeg thauj khoom hla dhau ntawm Strait of Hormuz maj mam rov pib ua ntej lub Plaub Hlis kawg -xav tias lub sijhawm cuam tshuam ntawm kwv yees li peb lub lis piam- cov nqi khoom noj tuaj yeem poob li ntawm 15–25%. Raws li qhov xwm txheej no, benzene cov nqi yuav rov qab mus rau CNY 6,500-7,000 / tuj, thaum toluene tuaj yeem poob rov qab mus rau CNY 6,000-6,500 / ton. Qhov no yuav yooj yim tus nqi siab ntawm MDI thiab TDI cov neeg tsim khoom thiab rov qhib qhov rais rau cov neeg yuav khoom qis.
Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb txuas mus rau lub quarter thib ob thiab cov nqi roj av txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, suav nrog cov sijhawm saib xyuas hauv tsev thiab cov peev txheej hauv qab cov khoom lag luam rov qab, kev nce siab ntxiv tsis tuaj yeem txiav tawm. Hauv qhov xwm txheej zoo li no, tus nqi benzene tuaj yeem ntsuas qib siab tshaj CNY 9,000 / tuj, thaum toluene tuaj yeem tshaj CNY 8,000 / tuj, yuam cov neeg tsim khoom polyurethane kom nrawm tus nqi dhau - los ntawm cov tswv yim.
Cov cim tseem ceeb los saib xyuas suav nrog cov tsheb thauj khoom txhua hnub los ntawm Strait of Hormuz, South Kauslim benzene export flows, domestic toluene disproportionation kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi, thiab cov khoom muag theem ntawm TDI thiab aniline.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam aromatics tau txhim kho nws txoj kev ua haujlwm tau zoo los ntawm kev loj - nplai refining kev koom ua ke thiab thee- tshuaj lom neeg nthuav dav. Txawm li cas los xij, cov roj crude tseem yog tus nqi tsav tsheb. Tam sim no US-Iran teeb meem ib zaug ntxiv qhia txog qhov rhiab heev ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam benzene rau kev xa khoom thiab kev sib txuas nruj ntawm benzene thiab toluene los ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb arbitrage.
Rau MDI / TDI kev lag luam, thawj ib nrab ntawm 2026 yuav zoo li tus cwj pwm los ntawm kev nce nqi khoom noj khoom haus thiab kev xav tau nce zuj zus ntxiv, ua rau kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus tseem ceeb rau kev tswj kev sib tw.