Thaum Lub Yim Hli 30, 2026, Asmeskas cov tub rog tau pib tawm tsam tshiab ntawm Larak Island ze ntawm Strait of Hormuz, thiab Iran tom qab ua pauj tawm tsam Asmeskas tub rog hauv Jordan, sai sai ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov hauv cheeb tsam ib zaug ntxiv.
Qhov kev kaw qhov strait qhia txog nws cov xwm txheej raws li lub hauv paus tseem ceeb uas lwm txoj kev tsis tuaj yeem hloov pauv
Kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce ntxiv, cov tsheb thauj khoom lag luam ib txwm siv thiab cov neeg nqa khoom loj tau ncua kev hla dhau ntawm Strait of Hormuz, nrog rau kev hla txhua hnub tsis ntev los no tau poob qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntawm keeb kwm. AIS (Automatic Identification System) cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Yim Hli 31 tau lees paub qhov kev sib cog lus ntse hauv kev tsheb, tsuas yog 11 lub nkoj tau sau tseg hla lub strait hnub ntawd. Lub nkoj sib xyaw ua ke tau tswj hwm los ntawm cov Iranian me me- thiab Indian-flaged cargo ships thiab auxiliary nkoj, uas qhia tau hais tias cov tuam txhab lag luam thoob ntiaj teb loj tau thim rov qab los ntawm cov chaw thauj mus los thaum muaj kev tsov rog loj heev- cov nqi pov hwm pheej hmoo thiab kev sib pauv tub rog tiag tiag; kev khiav tsheb khiav tau poob mus rau theem qis heev. Txawm hais tias cov neeg tsim khoom lag luam nyob sib ze xws li Saudi Arabia thiab UAE tau qhib qee cov kav dej hiav txwv thiab Hiav Txwv Liab lwm txoj hauv kev, suav nrog Yanbu chaw nres nkoj, kom cuam tshuam cov khoom xa tawm tsis zoo, cov no tsis tuaj yeem hloov pauv tag nrho Strait of Hormuz lub chaw tseem ceeb hauv lub sijhawm luv.
Kev lag luam peev tam sim no tus nqi nyob rau hauv ob qho tib si "tus nqi kev sib txhuam ntawm lub cev" thiab "tus nqi pheej hmoo ntawm thaj chaw"
Tom qab qhov kev nce qib tshiab kawg, kev lag luam hluav taws xob thoob ntiaj teb tau tshwm sim sai. Brent crude tau nce $ 2.21 txog $ 90.31 / bbl, thiab WTI nce $ 1.83 txog $ 85.23 / bbl. Thaum lub sijhawm ua lag luam Esxias thaum Lub Yim Hli 31, Brent luv luv nce mus txog $ 90.60 / bbl, nrog cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb hauv hnub. Ntawm qhov sib npaug, kev thauj mus los ntawm qhov chaw nres nkoj tau nce mus txog qhov chaw nres tsheb, tsis muaj cov cim ntawm kev rov qab los. Yog tias qhov kev sib tw tseem tsis tau muaj, tus nqi thauj khoom thoob ntiaj teb yuav zoo li nce siab thiab tsis hloov pauv, thaum cov nqi roj yuav nyob twj ywm rau qhov nce siab, muab ob qho tib si kev cuam tshuam tiag tiag thiab kev lag luam kev ntxhov siab tsis tu ncua.
Lub ntiaj teb lub zog thiab petrochemical kev lag luam tau tsom mus rau kev nyab xeeb ntawm kev xa khoom hauv Strait of Hormuz thiab cov khoom noj khoom haus txaus ntshai
Rau cov neeg Esxias petrochemical kev lag luam, cov kev pheej hmoo txuas ntxiv mus deb tshaj cov roj av. Middle East yog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb rau Asia LPG, naphtha, thiab C2 thiab C3 derivatives, thiab feem ntau cov crackers nyob rau sab hnub tuaj thiab South Asia cia siab rau import naphtha thiab LPG. Kev nce nqi roj ncaj qha nqa cov nqi naphtha, thaum cuam tshuam Middle East LPG cov khoom xa tuaj ua rau muaj kev tsis txaus ntseeg rau propane thiab butane. Rau cov neeg tsim khoom siv naphtha tawg los ua ethylene thiab aromatics, yog tias cov roj av tseem nyob ze $ 90 lossis nce ntxiv, tus nqi siab yuav hnyav dua.
Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam feedstock rallied muaj zog, thiab polyurethane raw khoom nqi ntxiv dag zog
Nrog cov khoom lag luam txuas ntxiv kom nruj thiab xa tawm kev thov nce zuj zus, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv aniline -xav tau cov peev txheej ruaj khov, thiab cov nqi lag luam tau nce zuj zus hauv lub Yim Hli. Cov neeg tsim khoom tau tsa muaj ntau zaus, thaum cov tub luam ntxiv cov nqi thiab tuav rov qab muag. Thaum kawg ntawm Lub Yim Hli, cov nqi tseem ceeb ntawm aniline hauv Suav teb tau nce mus txog CNY 13,500 / tonne, qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv ze li peb xyoos, nrog kev nce ntxiv ntawm 16.2% rau lub Yim Hli. Dhau li ntawm aniline, cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm polyurethane xws li benzene, toluene, propylene thiab ethylene oxide tag nrho tau qhib siab dua thaum pib ntawm lub lim tiam ntawm kev ua lag luam thaum Lub Yim Hli 31. Ntxiv mus, tau tsav los ntawm qhov xwm txheej nce ntxiv, kev txhawj xeeb nce ntxiv txog qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm kev thauj mus los tsis ntev los no, thiab muaj zog nce ntxiv hauv cov khoom noj khoom noj khoom haus muaj zog thiab cov khoom siv tsis ntev los no tau pom muaj zog ntawm cov khoom noj khoom haus muaj zog, polyure poob thiab tig upward.