Ob lub lis piam dhau los, Middle East PU kev ua lag luam tau txav mus dhau qhov kev cuam tshuam thawj zaug rau hauv ib theem ntawm kev nruj nruj thiab cov nqi tsis sib haum, uas tau tsav tsis yog los ntawm cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv tab sis kuj los ntawm kev hloov pauv kev lag luam.
Muaj kev txwv hnyav thoob plaws hauv cheeb tsam
Kev lag luam tawm tswv yim qhia tau hais tias cov khoom muaj nyob hauv cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis ntxiv txij li lub Peb Hlis thaum ntxov.
Cov neeg tsim khoom tseem ceeb tau txwv cov khoom siv vim yog kev quab yuam majeure thiab kev txwv tsis pub thauj khoom, tawm hauv kev ua lag luam nce ntxiv nyob rau theem ob.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov tub luam thiab cov neeg xa khoom tam sim no yog cov neeg muag khoom tseem ceeb, muab txhua yam uas lawv tuav hauv cov khoom muag. Ntau tus neeg koom ua lag luam tau lees paub tias "tsis muaj cov khoom siv hauv khw", qhia txog qhov tob ntawm cov khoom tsis txaus.
Tus tub luam-Led Market tsim cov nqi sib txawv
Tsis zoo li cov qauv tsim nqi ntau dua ib puag ncig pom yav dhau los, kev ua lag luam tam sim no tau tawg heev.
Cov lus sib tham polyols muaj ntau yam ntawm $ 1,300 txog $ 1,700 / mt, nyob ntawm qhov chaw thiab muaj
Qee cov tub lag luam tab tom muab cov qib siab dua, nrog rau qhov qhia txog $ 2,000-3,000 / mt hauv cov xwm txheej cais
MDI thiab TDI muaj kuj txawv txav, nrog rau qee qhov kev ua lag luam tawm tsam ntau tshaj $ 2,500 / mt rau MDI thiab $ 3, 000+ / mt rau TDI, txawm tias tsis yog txhua qib tau txais dav
Qhov kev nthuav dav dav no qhia txog tus neeg muag khoom- kev ua lag luam uas tau tsav, qhov twg tus nqi tau txiav txim siab ntxiv los ntawm qhov muaj tam sim ntawd es tsis yog tus qauv tsim tus nqi.
Kev ua lag luam tsis paub tseeb khaws tus nqi "Unrealistic"
Txawm hais tias muaj kev nce ntxiv, ntau tus neeg muag khoom tau sau tseg tias cov nqi tam sim no tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam tag nrho ntawm cov hauv paus ruaj khov.
Kev nrawm nrawm ntawm cov nqi roj av, los ntawm ib ncig ntawm $ 80 mus rau saum toj no $ 110 / bbl thiab tom qab ntawd rov qab qis dua $ 90, tau tsim kev tsis paub tseeb hauv cov qauv nqi. Raws li qhov tshwm sim, ntau tus neeg muag khoom tsis txaus siab los cog lus rau tus nqi ruaj khov, nrog qee qhov kev xaiv ncua kev hais lus tag nrho.
Nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig no, cov neeg koom hauv kev lag luam piav qhia tus nqi raws li "tsis ruaj khov" thiab "tsis yog- qhia", nrog rau kev cia siab tias qee qhov kev kho yuav tshwm sim thaum muaj kev hloov pauv sai.
Cov neeg tsim khoom nqis rov qab, Kev faib ua kom nruj
Nrog rau cov neeg muag khoom loj ntsib kev txwv logistical thiab feedstock, cov neeg tsim khoom koom nrog hauv qhov chaw ua lag luam tau txo.
Kev txwv lossis tsis muaj qhia los ntawm cov neeg tsim khoom hauv cheeb tsam tseem ceeb hauv qee ntu
Qee tus neeg muag khoom tseem ceeb tshaj qhov kev lag luam hauv tsev tshaj li kev xa tawm
Cov neeg yuav khoom nce tsis tuaj yeem ruaj ntseg cov khoom tsim tawm ncaj qha
Qhov no tau ntxiv dag zog rau lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov tub lag luam, txhawb nqa qhov tsis txaus ntseeg tam sim no ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov.
Logistics thiab Supply Chain Constraints tseem ceeb heev
Qhov teeb meem logistics txuas ntxiv mus rau txhua qhov kev lag luam dynamics:
Lub Strait ntawm Hormuz cuam tshuam tau zoo txwv kev lag luam ib txwm ntws
Shipping qeeb, rerouting, thiab kev ua tsov ua rog muaj feem cuam tshuam ntxiv ua rau cov nqi nce ntxiv
Lub sij hawm ua cov hmoov txhuas tau txuas ntxiv mus, txo cov khoom lag luam
Txawm tias muaj cov khoom siv, kev xa khoom tsis meej tseem yog qhov nyuaj.
Outlook: Volatility rau Persist, tab sis Kho Risks Emerging
Piv rau ob lub lis piam dhau los, kev ua lag luam tau hloov pauv los ntawm kev nruj mus rau qhov tsis sib xws.
Hauv lub sijhawm luv luv:
Muaj yuav nyob twj ywm
Cov nqi yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv thiab nyob ntawm qhov chaw ua lag luam
Kev sib txawv ntawm tus nqi qis thiab siab yuav nyob twj ywm
Txawm li cas los xij, kev xav loj hlob hauv kev ua lag luam qhia tias cov nqi siab tam sim no yuav tsis muaj kev ruaj ntseg, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias cov roj crude ruaj khov thiab ntshai - tsav kev yuav qeeb.
Raws li ib tug distributor qhia, kev ua lag luam tam sim no tau tsav ntau dua los ntawm cov tshuaj tiv thaiv ntau dua li cov hauv paus ntsiab lus, tawm tswv yim txog kev kho kom zoo thaum cov xwm txheej normalize.