Cov kev tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm thaj chaw uas tshwm sim los ntawm US-Iran tsis sib haum xeeb thaum lub Ob Hlis 2026- ua raws li kev ua tub rog cuam tshuam nrog cov neeg Ixayees thiab Tebchaws Meskas tawm tsam Iran-tam sim no tau nkag mus rau lawv lub lim tiam thib peb. Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev cuam tshuam yog nyob rau hauv Strait of Hormuz, yog ib qho tseem ceeb tshaj plaws chokepoints rau ntiaj teb no crude roj tsheb thauj mus los. Kev hem thawj rau lub tsheb thauj neeg thiab kev cuam tshuam hauv hiav txwv tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau kev khiav ntawm kwv yees li 20 lab chim rau ib hnub ntawm cov roj av thiab LNG xa khoom.
Raws li qhov tshwm sim, cov nqi roj thoob ntiaj teb luv luv tau nce siab dua USD 119 / bbl (Brent thiab WTI) ua ntej easing, txawm hais tias lawv tseem tsis hloov pauv ntawm qib siab, nrog Brent tam sim no hloov pauv ntawm $ 87-103 / bbl. Los ntawm cov roj crude-naphtha-aromatics tus nqi saw, geopolitical poob siab tau xa mus rau Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam aromatics, thawb tus nqi ntawm cov khoom noj tseem ceeb xws li benzene thiab toluene.
Cov ntaub ntawv lag luam qhia tias cov nqi benzene hauv Suav teb tau nce siab los ntawm CNY 6,122 / tuj thaum ntxov Lub Peb Hlis mus txog CNY 8,501 / ton los ntawm nruab nrab-Lub Peb Hlis, sawv cev nce 39%. Toluene tau ua raws li txoj hauv kev zoo sib xws, nce los ntawm CNY 5,425 / tuj rau CNY 7,870 / ton, kos npe nce 45%. Raws li qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom noj khoom haus rau MDI thiab TDI ntau lawm, tus nqi nrawm nrawm yog nce tus nqi siab thoob plaws cov khoom siv polyurethane.
Geopolitical Disruptions kis los ntawm Aromatic Cost Chain
Kev cuam tshuam rau cov dej ntws los ntawm Strait of Hormuz tau nruj rau Middle East xa tawm, tsav tsheb nce nqi rau naphtha thiab hloov kho cov khoom noj thoob plaws Asia. Benzene thiab toluene, uas vam khom ntau rau refinery catalytic hloov kho thiab chav tawg txoj hauv kev rau ntau tshaj 70% ntawm lawv cov khoom, yog li ntawd siab heev rau cov roj crude txav.
Txij li thaum lub Peb Hlis Ntuj thaum ntxov, Asian benzene chaw lag luam tau nce siab, thaum Tuam Tshoj cov khoom lag luam derivatives tau pom cov nqi sib law liag nce, ntxiv dag zog rau cov nqi txhawb nqa rau benzene thiab downstream khoom xws li styrene. Txawm hais tias toluene belongs rau tib yamBTX (benzene-toluene-xylene)aromatics tsev neeg, cov qauv sib txawv hauv Suav teb cov khoom siv hauv tsev tau tsim kev lag luam sib txawv me ntsis.
Thaum cov nqi toluene tau ua raws li benzene nce siab, lawv tau pom tias muaj zog buffering me ntsis vim muaj cov khoom siv hauv tsev. Txawm li cas los xij, lub sij hawm ntawm tus nqi nce siab zoo sib xws nrog cov kev xa khoom siab tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv Strait of Hormuz, qhia txog yuav ua li cas cov nqi pheej hmoo ntawm thaj chaw tau raug xa mus thoob plaws cov khoom noj khoom haus thiab cov khoom noj polyurethane.